
Intelligence and Stupidity: The Orthogonality Thesis
Robert Miles AI Safety
Choose the orthogonality explanation first to separate goals from capability. It provides vocabulary for evaluating later arguments, not a timeline prediction.
Distinguish a mechanism from a prediction
AI safety videos mix arguments about possible agent behavior with claims about jobs, institutions and timelines. Start by understanding the premise of an argument; do not treat a compelling scenario as a measured forecast.
Miles’s orthogonality explanation separates how capable an agent is from what it pursues. Instrumental convergence then asks why different final goals might produce similar intermediate incentives. Watch them in that order if the terminology is new. For each argument, write down the assumed agent, its available actions and the environment in which the conclusion is supposed to hold.

Robert Miles AI Safety
Choose the orthogonality explanation first to separate goals from capability. It provides vocabulary for evaluating later arguments, not a timeline prediction.

Robert Miles AI Safety
Continue with instrumental convergence to examine how intermediate incentives might arise. Check which premises would have to apply to the system you are discussing.
These explanatory arguments do not supply probabilities for AGI arrival or a complete assessment of current systems. Keep uncertainty and empirical evidence visible.
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